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Outlook
Machiavelli warned that fortune is a flooding river, and that the wise build their dykes while the weather is calm. Here is the weather report: the odds for rates, commodities and the big global risks, each drawn as a curve and explained in plain words.
This weekDrifting lower, slowly. The 10-year most likely ends next October near 4.78%, below today's 5.15%. Sticky inflation keeps a floor under it. The risk to watch is fiscal: 1 in 5 odds yields top 5.3%.
Outlook groups
- Rates10-year in 12 months4.78%Everything that moves bond yields: the Fed and inflation set short rates, government debt sets long ones.Rates OutlookThe FedInflationGovernment Debt
- CommoditiesBrent in 12 months$109Physical prices that feed straight into inflation.OilGold & metals
- Global risksBust within two years28%Shocks that can hit any market: the AI cycle, conflict and the strong dollar.AI: Boom or BustGeopoliticsEmerging Markets