Emerging Markets
Data through Oct 19, 2026 · updatedHow emerging-market currencies and borrowers are likely to fare against a strong dollar over the next year. Who wins, who gets squeezed, and the forces pushing each way.
A strong dollar makes every dollar loan heavier. Emerging-market currencies most likely slip to about −3% as high U.S. yields keep the dollar firm and China slows. Oil exporters hold up. Importers and heavy dollar borrowers carry a 1 in 4 risk of a real squeeze.
Watch: The dollar and U.S. 10-year yields.
About the data12 months ahead · refreshed weekly
Each scenario is drawn as its own bell curve, sized by its odds; the white line adds them together. The gold line is the most likely outcome, the shaded bands cover two in three and nineteen in twenty outcomes, and shaded tails mark the outcomes we warn about.
Built from public market and economic data (largely the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis), Point75’s own credit and market signals, and judgement, and refreshed every week. Odds are probabilities, not promises. General market commentary for everyone alike, not advice for your portfolio.