AI: Boom or Bust
Data through Oct 19, 2026 · updatedThe odds the AI build-out keeps booming, deflates slowly or breaks, when the risk peaks, how bad a break could be, who gets hit first, what it means for jobs, and the geopolitical wild cards. Every call is frozen and scored.
Late boom, getting borrowed. The build-out most likely keeps going or cools slowly, but spending still outruns AI revenue and more of it now runs on debt. A bust is a 28% chance over two years; if it comes, it hits chips and data-center lenders first and utilities by surprise.
Watch: Hyperscaler earnings. If two of the four biggest cloud spenders cut next year's capex guidance, bust odds jump.
About the data2 years ahead · refreshed weekly
Each scenario is drawn as its own bell curve, sized by its odds; the white line adds them together. The gold line is the most likely outcome, the shaded bands cover two in three and nineteen in twenty outcomes, and shaded tails mark the outcomes we warn about.
Built from public market and economic data (largely the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis), Point75’s own credit and market signals, and judgement, and refreshed every week. Odds are probabilities, not promises. General market commentary for everyone alike, not advice for your portfolio.