Geopolitics
Data through Oct 19, 2026 · updatedThe hotspots that matter for bonds, the odds each one escalates, and the channel through which it would hit. Most of them reach yields the same way: through oil.
Many fires, one main channel. Risk most likely stays elevated, near today's level, at 61. Most hotspots reach bonds through oil and inflation. Only a Taiwan crisis would hit directly, by sending money rushing into Treasuries.
Watch: Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and new chip export bans.
About the data12 months ahead · refreshed weekly
Each scenario is drawn as its own bell curve, sized by its odds; the white line adds them together. The gold line is the most likely outcome, the shaded bands cover two in three and nineteen in twenty outcomes, and shaded tails mark the outcomes we warn about.
Built from public market and economic data (largely the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis), Point75’s own credit and market signals, and judgement, and refreshed every week. Odds are probabilities, not promises. General market commentary for everyone alike, not advice for your portfolio.