Where oil is most likely to be a year from now, the odds of a spike, and why it matters. Oil feeds straight into inflation, and inflation drives bond yields.
War premium on a softening market. Brent most likely eases to about $109 over the year, below today's $127. Demand is slowing and supply outside the Middle East is ample. The danger is the right tail: a 9% chance of a spike above $140.
Watch: Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and the next OPEC+ decision.
About the data12 months ahead · refreshed weekly
Each scenario is drawn as its own bell curve, sized by its odds; the white line adds them together. The gold line is the most likely outcome, the shaded bands cover two in three and nineteen in twenty outcomes, and shaded tails mark the outcomes we warn about.
Built from public market and economic data (largely the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis), Point75’s own credit and market signals, and judgement, and refreshed every week. Odds are probabilities, not promises. General market commentary for everyone alike, not advice for your portfolio.