Inflation & Stagflation
Data through Sep 1, 2026 · updatedWhere core inflation is most likely to be a year from now, the odds it gets stuck while growth stalls, and the forces pushing each way. The single biggest driver of bond yields.
Heating up again. Core inflation most likely climbs to about 3.0% a year from now, above today's 2.8%. The odds of stagflation have risen to 35%.
Watch: Monthly core inflation prints and five-year inflation expectations.
About the data12 months ahead · refreshed weekly
Each scenario is drawn as its own bell curve, sized by its odds; the white line adds them together. The gold line is the most likely outcome, the shaded bands cover two in three and nineteen in twenty outcomes, and shaded tails mark the outcomes we warn about.
Built from public market and economic data (largely the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis), Point75’s own credit and market signals, and judgement, and refreshed every week. Odds are probabilities, not promises. General market commentary for everyone alike, not advice for your portfolio.