Fed Readiness
Data through Oct 19, 2026 · updatedWhere the Fed's rate is most likely to be a year from now, how ready it is for a downturn, and what could stop it from acting.
Plenty of ammunition, not much freedom. The Fed most likely holds near 3.83% for now. It has room to cut and proven crisis tools, but with inflation near 3% and political pressure rising, it may not be free to use them when growth breaks.
Watch: The unemployment rate and the Fed's next meeting.
About the data12 months ahead · refreshed weekly
Each scenario is drawn as its own bell curve, sized by its odds; the white line adds them together. The gold line is the most likely outcome, the shaded bands cover two in three and nineteen in twenty outcomes, and shaded tails mark the outcomes we warn about.
Built from public market and economic data (largely the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis), Point75’s own credit and market signals, and judgement, and refreshed every week. Odds are probabilities, not promises. General market commentary for everyone alike, not advice for your portfolio.