Rates Outlook
Data through Oct 19, 2026 · updatedWhere Treasury yields are most likely to land over the next year, and how sure we are. Built from the curve, the Fed's projections and the signals across Point75.
Drifting lower, slowly. The 10-year most likely ends next October near 4.78%, below today's 5.15%. Sticky inflation keeps a floor under it. The risk to watch is fiscal: 1 in 5 odds yields top 5.3%.
Watch: The term premium and the next 10- and 30-year auctions. A sustained rise in either lifts the fiscal-stress odds at the next refresh.
About the data12 months ahead · refreshed weekly
Each scenario is drawn as its own bell curve, sized by its odds; the white line adds them together. The gold line is the most likely outcome, the shaded bands cover two in three and nineteen in twenty outcomes, and shaded tails mark the outcomes we warn about.
Built from public market and economic data (largely the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis), Point75’s own credit and market signals, and judgement, and refreshed every week. Odds are probabilities, not promises. General market commentary for everyone alike, not advice for your portfolio.