Government Debt
Data through Oct 19, 2026 · updatedWhether big governments can keep borrowing cheaply, who is under strain, and what it means for long-term yields.
Default isn't the risk; the price of borrowing is. The U.S. almost certainly keeps paying, and the term premium most likely eases to 0.97%, below today's 0.99%. A buyers' strike is still a 1 in 5 chance.
Watch: Demand at the next 10-year and 30-year Treasury auctions.
About the data12 months ahead · refreshed weekly
Each scenario is drawn as its own bell curve, sized by its odds; the white line adds them together. The gold line is the most likely outcome, the shaded bands cover two in three and nineteen in twenty outcomes, and shaded tails mark the outcomes we warn about.
Built from public market and economic data (largely the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis), Point75’s own credit and market signals, and judgement, and refreshed every week. Odds are probabilities, not promises. General market commentary for everyone alike, not advice for your portfolio.