Forecasting: scenarios, odds and calls

Whose forecasts

Most forward-looking numbers in our reports are official forecasts, such as the EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook, CBO's budget projections and the CMS actuaries' health spending projections. They are attributed to their source, with the date of the edition used. We do not publish price targets for any security, and we make no bitcoin price forecasts.

Three scenarios, with odds

Each report sets out bull, base and bear cases for the next two to three years. Each case is written as numeric ranges for the measures that matter in that sector, anchored on cited figures, plus who wins, what it means for bondholders and the signpost that would tell us it is happening.

• The odds are Point75's judgment. They always add up to 100%.
• Each report explains why the base case gets its odds, and names the events that would move the odds by 10 points.
• Odds change only in a new edition, with the reason given.

The calls we are making

Each report ends with six calls: specific statements that will be true or false by a stated date, each graded on a named public source, preferably official data. Each carries a confidence label.

• High: we think it is roughly 80% likely or more.
• Medium: roughly 60% to 80%.
• Moderate: roughly 50% to 60%.

Every open call, with its check-by date and how it will be graded, is listed on the calls scoreboard. The first grading is in January 2027.

Calls are fixed at publication. If our view changes we add a new call; we never rewrite an old one. From the next edition, page 2 of each report shows how each earlier call turned out, and we publish the running hit rate across all sector reports, misses included.