Forecasting
Calls scoreboard
First grading in January 2027. Each members’ report ends with six specific calls that will be right or wrong by a stated date, each graded on a named public source. We list them here so anyone can check them, misses included. 6 calls, 6 open.
Electricity
Edition 1, October 2026 · calls as of October 26, 2026 · next edition January 2027| # | The call | Check by | How it will be graded | Confidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Home power prices keep rising. The 2026 U.S. average residential price comes in at 18.0¢ per kWh or higher. | March 2027 | EIA Electric Power Monthly, full-year 2026 data | High | Open |
| 2 | Demand forecasts go up, not down. EIA's 2027 consumption forecast in the April 2027 STEO is at or above today's 4,356 billion kWh. | April 2027 | EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, April 2027 vs. October 2026 | Medium | Open |
| 3 | PJM stays pinned to its cap. The 2029/30 Base Residual Auction clears at or within 5% of its price cap for the RTO. | Auction date | PJM auction results report | Medium | Open |
| 4 | Rate requests set another record. U.S. electric and gas rate increase requests for full-year 2026 exceed $35 billion. | February 2027 | PowerLines rate request index, full-year 2026 | Medium | Open |
| 5 | Scarce assets beat the broad sector. An equal-weight basket of CEG, VST, TLN and NRG outperforms XLU, total return, from Oct. 26, 2026 to Oct. 26, 2027. | October 2027 | Total-return data from public market sources | Moderate | Open |
| 6 | Public power borrows at a record pace. Municipal electric power bond issuance for full-year 2026 tops 2025's record $34.8 billion. | January 2027 | LSEG data via The Bond Buyer, 2026 year-end statistics | High | Open |
How we keep score
- High roughly 80% or more likely, in our judgment.
- Medium roughly 60% to 80% likely, in our judgment.
- Moderate roughly 50% to 60% likely, in our judgment.
- No quiet edits. Calls are fixed at publication. If our view changes, we add a new call; we never rewrite an old one.
- Public sources only. Each call is graded on the source named, so you can check the result without us.
- Running record. From the next edition, each report shows how its earlier calls turned out, and this page shows the result of every call.
Calls are Point75’s judgment, made for transparency; they are not recommendations to buy or sell any security. How we set odds and make calls is explained in Forecasting; corrections are logged on Methodology changes.